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Odra Petřkovice vs Frýdek-Místek — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
0 – 3
Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
8/29/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 4Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice45%
×Draw24%
Frýdek-Místek31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.61
Frýdek-Místek
1.30

Odra Petřkovice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Frýdek-Místek
1.48

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Frýdek-Místek
1.58

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Frýdek-Místek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
69%
Odra Petřkovice or Frýdek-Místek
76%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek
55%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
23%
Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
80%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
48%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
22%
Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
73%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
37%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
59%
Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
45%
level
24%
Frýdek-Místek scores more
31%

Odra Petřkovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Petřkovice vs Frýdek-Místek

Frýdek-Místek beat Odra Petřkovice 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.