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Frýdek-Místek vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
CANC
00:00
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
4/5/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 21Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Frýdek-Místek36%
×Draw25%
Odra Petřkovice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek
1.39
Odra Petřkovice
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 12 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.69
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.12
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw
60%
Frýdek-Místek or Odra Petřkovice
75%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
64%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
16%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
75%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
40%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
16%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
77%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
43%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
47%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.39

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more
36%
level
25%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
40%

Odra Petřkovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frýdek-Místek face Odra Petřkovice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Frýdek-Místek hosting Odra Petřkovice. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Frýdek-Místek host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion Stovky.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.