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Odra Petřkovice vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
13:30
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
3/21/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice62%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
2.19
Dolní Benešov
1.10

Odra Petřkovice creates 99% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
82%
Odra Petřkovice or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
38%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
39%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
89%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
64%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
37%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
67%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
30%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
77%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
62%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
18%

Odra Petřkovice at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odra Petřkovice face Dolní Benešov (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Odra Petřkovice hosting Dolní Benešov. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Odra Petřkovice host Dolní Benešov at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.