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Dolní Benešov vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
15:30
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
5/23/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 29Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dolní Benešov21%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
0.94
Odra Petřkovice
1.72

Odra Petřkovice creates 83% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
44%
Dolní Benešov or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
79%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
7%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
61%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
24%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
7%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
82%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
51%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
27%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
21%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
56%

Odra Petřkovice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dolní Benešov host Odra Petřkovice

May 23, 2021: Dolní Benešov take on Odra Petřkovice in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dolní Benešov host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.