Odra Opole 1–5 Tychy 71: Result & Stats | I Liga

Odra Opole

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Tychy 71

T. Přikryl 34'

B. Śpiączka 74'

J. Keiblinger 68'

M. Błachewicz 29'

J. Ertlthaler 11' (pen), 2'

3/1/2025

I Liga · Round 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Odra Opole39%

×Draw26%

Tychy 7135%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra OpoleExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Odra Opole

1.36

Tychy 71

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

1.17

creates per match

1.26

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Odra Opole

1.17

Tychy 71

1.26

allows per match

Odra Opole

1.33

Tychy 71

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw

65%

Odra Opole or Tychy 71

74%

Draw or Tychy 71

61%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+

18%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals

74%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

39%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

16%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

72%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

37%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

52%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.17 + Tychy 71 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tychy 71 attack 1.26 + Odra Opole defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Opole scores more

39%

level

26%

Tychy 71 scores more

35%

Odra Opole at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Ertlthaler

10'

A. Chrzanowski

11'

J. ErtlthalerPenalty

23'

T. PrikrylGoal Disallowed - Foul

25'

29'

34'

38'

38'

46'

D. Czapliński← J. Bartosz

68'

J. Keiblinger

74'

B. Śpiączka

75'

A. Purzycki← M. Czyżycki

75'

S. Mida← T. Přikryl

78'

T. Kubik← J. Ertlthaler

79'

D. Rumin← B. Śpiączka

79'

M. Stangret← N. Dzięgielewski

83'

R. Niziołek← M. Mansfeld

83'

R. Makowski← M. Szpakowski

83'

T. Kurtaran← J. Bieroński

84'

J. Pochcioł← D. Tront

90+2'

A. Chrzanowski

90+2'

A. Chrzanowski

90+4'

K. Nowak

Odra

Tychy

⚽

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Skrobacz

46'▲D. Czapliński←▼J. Bartosz

75'▲A. Purzycki←▼M. Czyżycki

75'▲S. Mida←▼T. Přikryl

83'▲R. Niziołek←▼M. Mansfeld

84'▲J. Pochcioł←▼D. Tront

Odra Opole substitutes

CzaplińskiPurzyckiMidaNiziołekPochciołHaluchWolnyZawadaBłyszko

Manager: A. Skowronek

78'▲T. Kubik←▼J. Ertlthaler

79'▲D. Rumin←▼B. Śpiączka

79'▲M. Stangret←▼N. Dzięgielewski

83'▲R. Makowski←▼M. Szpakowski

83'▲T. Kurtaran←▼J. Bieroński

Tychy 71 substitutes

KubikRuminStangretMakowskiKurtaranKołotyłoHołowniaGębalaŻytek

I Liga: Odra Opole 1–5 Tychy 71

Tychy 71 beat Odra Opole 5-1 in I Liga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Ertlthaler (2', 11' pen), M. Błachewicz (29'), T. Přikryl (34'), J. Keiblinger (68'), B. Śpiączka (74').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.

Odra Opole vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Odra Opole 1–5 Tychy 71