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Odra Opole vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
9/29/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski (Opole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Opole56%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.70
Garbarnia Kraków
0.91

Odra Opole creates 87% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
80%
Odra Opole or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
44%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
31%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
82%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
51%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
60%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
74%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Odra Opole scores more
56%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
20%

Odra Opole at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Odra Opole 3–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Odra Opole beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-0 in I Liga on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Opole).