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Garbarnia Kraków vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
4/20/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 29Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków29%
×Draw28%
Odra Opole43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.04
Odra Opole
1.33

Odra Opole creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
57%
Garbarnia Kraków or Odra Opole
72%
Draw or Odra Opole
71%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
11%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
65%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
28%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
9%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
74%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
38%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
40%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.04

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
29%
level
28%
Odra Opole scores more
43%

Odra Opole at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Garbarnia Kraków 0–0 Odra Opole

Garbarnia Kraków and Odra Opole drew 0-0 in I Liga on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).