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Odra Opole vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
S. Skrzypczak 74', 40'
M. Kuzimski 10'
5/4/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Miejski (Opole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Opole42%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.48
Bytovia Bytów
1.29

Odra Opole creates 15% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
67%
Odra Opole or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
58%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
20%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
77%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
43%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
19%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
37%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
56%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Opole scores more
42%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
33%

Odra Opole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Kuzimski
40'
S. Skrzypczak
74'
S. Skrzypczak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole vs Bytovia Bytów

Odra Opole beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in I Liga on May 4, 2019.

Goals: M. Kuzimski (10'), S. Skrzypczak (40', 74').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Opole).