Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Odra Opole: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Odra Opole

10/20/2018

I Liga · Round 15Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów43%

×Draw27%

Odra Opole31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Bytovia Bytów

1.39

Odra Opole

1.13

Bytovia Bytów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

1.18

creates per match

1.08

1.18

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Odra Opole

1.08

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Odra Opole

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

69%

Bytovia Bytów or Odra Opole

73%

Draw or Odra Opole

57%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

20%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

75%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

40%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

16%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

68%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

31%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

58%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

43%

level

27%

Odra Opole scores more

31%

Bytovia Bytów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff