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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
4/6/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański36%
×Draw25%
Kluczbork40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.43
Kluczbork
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Kluczbork
1.57

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Kluczbork
1.50

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
60%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Kluczbork
75%
Draw or Kluczbork
64%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
17%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
76%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
42%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
17%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
78%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
45%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
47%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
36%
level
25%
Kluczbork scores more
40%

Kluczbork at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Kluczbork

Kluczbork beat Odra Bytom Odrzański 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.