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Kluczbork vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
0 – 1
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
9/7/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kluczbork54%
×Draw22%
Odra Bytom Odrzański24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.90
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.20

Kluczbork creates 58% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
76%
Kluczbork or Odra Bytom Odrzański
78%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
46%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
31%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
85%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
56%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
29%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
70%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
34%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
69%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kluczbork scores more
54%
level
22%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
24%

Kluczbork at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Kluczbork 0–1 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Odra Bytom Odrzański beat Kluczbork 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.