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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
1 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański42%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.60
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.43

Odra Bytom Odrzański creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
66%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
58%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
80%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
47%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
76%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
42%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
55%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
42%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
34%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Odra Bytom Odrzański and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.