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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 1
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry47%
×Draw24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.67
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.24

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 35% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
72%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Odra Bytom Odrzański
76%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
53%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
25%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
81%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
50%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
23%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
71%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
35%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
62%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
47%
level
24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
28%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–1 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry and Odra Bytom Odrzański drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.