Odra Bytom Odrzański 4–0 Górnik Polkowice

Odra Bytom Odrzański

FT

4 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

3/30/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański34%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra Bytom OdrzańskiExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.51

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.34

Górnik Polkowice

1.51

Górnik Polkowice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.35

creates per match

1.55

1.47

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.35

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.47

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw

59%

Odra Bytom Odrzański or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

66%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+

15%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals

74%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals

39%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals

15%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

44%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)

45%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more

34%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

41%

Górnik Polkowice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff