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Górnik Polkowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
J. Rogalski 80'
F. Baranowski 64'
M. Szuszkiewicz 57'
5/21/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Polkowice52%
×Draw23%
Odra Bytom Odrzański24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.79
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.15

Górnik Polkowice creates 56% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
76%
Górnik Polkowice or Odra Bytom Odrzański
77%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
48%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
29%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
53%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
26%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
68%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
32%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
68%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
52%
level
23%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
24%

Górnik Polkowice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
M. Szuszkiewicz
64'
F. Baranowski
80'
J. Rogalski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Polkowice 3–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Górnik Polkowice beat Odra Bytom Odrzański 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Szuszkiewicz (57'), F. Baranowski (64'), J. Rogalski (80').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.