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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
3/28/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański38%
×Draw26%
Goczałkowice Zdrój37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.36
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
63%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Goczałkowice Zdrój
74%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
62%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
17%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
74%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
39%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
16%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
74%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
39%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
51%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
38%
level
26%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
37%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Odra Bytom Odrzański and Goczałkowice Zdrój drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.