Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Goczałkowice Zdrój

FT

2 – 0

Odra Bytom Odrzański

8/5/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój52%

×Draw24%

Odra Bytom Odrzański24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goczałkowice ZdrójExpected goals in this matchOdra Bytom Odrzański

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.08

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.72

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.08

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.59

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.03

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.13

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw

76%

Goczałkowice Zdrój or Odra Bytom Odrzański

76%

Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański

48%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

29%

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

82%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

51%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

25%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals

66%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals

29%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

69%

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

52%

level

24%

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more

24%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff