Odisha 3–1 Hyderabad: Result & Stats

Odisha

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hyderabad

R. Ali 70'

H. Boumous 49'

M. Fall 47'

S. Šapić 30'

2/14/2025

Indian Super League · Round 22Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Odisha42%

×Draw24%

Hyderabad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdishaExpected goals in this matchHyderabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Odisha

1.60

Hyderabad

1.41

Odisha creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 63 away

1.75

creates per match

1.25

1.56

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Odisha

1.75

Hyderabad

1.25

allows per match

Odisha

1.56

Hyderabad

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par

Hyderabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Hyderabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Odisha or draw

66%

Odisha or Hyderabad

76%

Draw or Hyderabad

58%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+

21%

Hyderabad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals

80%

Odisha 2+ goals

47%

Odisha 3+ goals

22%

Hyderabad 1+ goals

76%

Hyderabad 2+ goals

41%

Hyderabad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)

55%

Hyderabad (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

Hyderabad away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.46 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + Hyderabad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hyderabad attack 1.25 + Odisha defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odisha scores more

42%

level

24%

Hyderabad scores more

34%

Odisha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Boumous

Odisha · M

9.7

Match Events

30'

S. Šapić↳ M. Rafi

37'

Saviour Gama

47'

M. Fall↳ H. Boumous

49'

H. Boumous↳ J. Mawihmingthanga

63'

Dori← Diego Maurício

69'

T. Singh← R. Fernandes

69'

A. Ranawade← J. Mawihmingthanga

70'

R. Ali↳ T. Singh

74'

D. Murgaokar← Ramhlunchhunga

74'

Edmilson Correia← Allan Paulista

74'

83'

87'

88'

90+8'

90+6'

90'

Abijith PA← C. Goddard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdishaHyderabad

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots11

4Corners5

17Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target3

7Off Target7

2Blocked1

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

471Total Passes386

389Accurate Passes300

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

7Offsides1