Odisha 3–0 Hyderabad: Result & Stats

Odisha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hyderabad

R. Krishna 90+5', 35'

M. Fall 40'

12/17/2023

Indian Super League · Round 10Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Odisha42%

×Draw24%

Hyderabad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdishaExpected goals in this matchHyderabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Odisha

1.60

Hyderabad

1.41

Odisha creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 63 away

1.75

creates per match

1.25

1.56

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Odisha

1.75

Hyderabad

1.25

allows per match

Odisha

1.56

Hyderabad

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par

Hyderabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Hyderabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Odisha or draw

66%

Odisha or Hyderabad

76%

Draw or Hyderabad

58%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+

21%

Hyderabad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals

80%

Odisha 2+ goals

47%

Odisha 3+ goals

22%

Hyderabad 1+ goals

76%

Hyderabad 2+ goals

41%

Hyderabad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)

55%

Hyderabad (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

Hyderabad away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.46 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + Hyderabad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hyderabad attack 1.25 + Odisha defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odisha scores more

42%

level

24%

Hyderabad scores more

34%

Odisha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Krishna

Odisha · F

8.6

Match Events

12'

Joseph Knowles

27'

Ahmed Jahouh

35'

R. Krishna↳ A. Ranawade

40'

M. Fall↳ Carlos Delgado

46'

M. Zothanpuia← V. Dakshinamurthy

62'

J. Mawihmingthanga← P. Bhumij

62'

A. Rabeeh← N. Poojary

77'

Ramhlunchhunga← J. Moya

83'

A. Jadhav← I. Vanlalruatfela

88'

P. Rebello← L. Khawlhring

90+5'

R. Krishna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdishaHyderabad

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots12

5Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked3

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

499Total Passes435

431Accurate Passes371

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2