Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Odisha vs Central Coast Mariners — AFC Cup 2018

Odisha
Odisha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
3/14/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsKalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Odisha34%
×Draw28%
Central Coast Mariners38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odisha
1.13
Central Coast Mariners
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Odisha
1.75
Central Coast Mariners
1.17

allows per match

Odisha
1.25
Central Coast Mariners
0.50

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Odisha or draw
62%
Odisha or Central Coast Mariners
72%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
66%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+
14%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals
68%
Odisha 2+ goals
31%
Odisha 3+ goals
11%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
70%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
34%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)
47%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.17 + Odisha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Odisha scores more
34%
level
28%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
38%

Central Coast Mariners at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. FallOdishaOdisha · D
7.9

Match Events

45+1'
Ryan Edmondson
56'
P. Rebello← L. Khawlhring
60'
M. Di Pizio← Ronald Barcellos
60'
H. Steele← B. Tapp
64'
Aphaoba Singh← I. Vanlalruatfela
71'
C. Theoharous← Á. Torres
71'
J. Reec← R. Edmondson
72'
Amey Ganesh Ranawade
90+2'
B. Brandtman← M. Balard

Possession

47%Odisha

Shots

0Odisha

Pass accuracy

49%Odisha

Statistics

OdishaCentral
Overview
47%Possession53%
0Total Shots17
1Corners12
12Fouls11
Shots
0Total Shots17
0On Target2
0Off Target7
0Blocked8
0Inside Box11
0Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
415Total Passes473
349Accurate Passes407
84%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Odisha vs Central Coast Mariners

Odisha and Central Coast Mariners drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on March 14, 2024.

Central Coast Mariners controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 0.

The match was played at Kalinga Stadium in Bhubaneswar.