Central Coast Mariners 4–0 Odisha: Result & Stats

Central Coast Mariners

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Odisha

3/7/2024

AFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsIndustree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Central Coast Mariners72%

×Draw14%

Odisha15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchOdisha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

1.67

Central Coast Mariners

3.63

Odisha

1.67

Central Coast Mariners creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

4.50

creates per match

2.50

0.83

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

4.50

Odisha

2.50

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

0.83

Odisha

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Odisha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

85%

Central Coast Mariners or Odisha

86%

Draw or Odisha

28%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

54%

Odisha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

97%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

87%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

68%

Odisha 1+ goals

81%

Odisha 2+ goals

50%

Odisha 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

83%

Odisha (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 4.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Odisha away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 4.50 + Odisha defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.63

Odisha attack 2.50 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

72%

level

14%

Odisha scores more

15%

Central Coast Mariners at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff