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Odense vs Sonderjyske — Superliga 2026

Odense
Odense
Preview
17:00
Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
8/3/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 2Nature Energy Park
Big match
48%
Odense
model favours
48%23%29%

Sonderjyske score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Odense48%
×Draw23%
Sonderjyske29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.78
Sonderjyske
1.35

Odense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

creates per match

Odense
1.79
Sonderjyske
1.37

allows per match

Odense
1.34
Sonderjyske
1.77

finishing

Odense-0.16scores less
Sonderjyske-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Sonderjyske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Odense or draw
71%
Odense or Sonderjyske
77%
Draw or Sonderjyske
52%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
26%
Sonderjyske wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
83%
Odense 2+ goals
53%
Odense 3+ goals
26%
Sonderjyske 1+ goals
74%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
39%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
62%
Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.79 + Sonderjyske defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sonderjyske attack 1.37 + Odense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Odense scores more
48%
level
23%
Sonderjyske scores more
29%

Odense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Odense
Balanced
Sonderjyske
Direct / counter-attacking
51%PossessionBiggest gap44%
82%Pass accuracy78%
11.3Shots11.1
1.52xG1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OdenseSonderjyske

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Odense
6
Draws
2
Sonderjyske
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 80%
0–11–13–21–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Odense
LLLWW
Sonderjyske
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Odense host Sonderjyske

August 3, 2026: Odense take on Sonderjyske in Superliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Odense host Sonderjyske at Nature Energy Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.