Odense 1–2 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Odense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Midtjylland

R. Al Hajj 44'

O. Sørensen 84', 24'

10/23/2023

Superliga · Round 12Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Odense33%

×Draw25%

FC Midtjylland42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdenseExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.51

Odense

1.31

FC Midtjylland

1.51

FC Midtjylland creates 15% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 133 away

1.45

creates per match

1.71

1.31

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Odense

1.45

FC Midtjylland

1.71

allows per match

Odense

1.31

FC Midtjylland

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odense+0.00on par

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Odense or draw

58%

Odense or FC Midtjylland

75%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

67%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+

14%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals

73%

Odense 2+ goals

38%

Odense 3+ goals

14%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

78%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

44%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)

44%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 116 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.45 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Midtjylland attack 1.71 + Odense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odense scores more

33%

level

25%

FC Midtjylland scores more

42%

FC Midtjylland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

O. Sørensen

FC Midtjylland · M

9.3

Match Events

24'

O. Sørensen

25'

Oliver SørensenGoal confirmed

31'

Sverrir Ingi Ingason

40'

Mads Bech Sørensen

44'

R. Al Hajj↳ S. Köhler

46'

M. Ivančević← B. Paulsen

53'

Rami Al Hajj

57'

Henrik Dalsgaard

61'

Franculino Djú← O. Brynhildsen

62'

62'

62'

69'

74'

74'

A. Gabriel← H. Dalsgaard

83'

A. Mustafić← L. Deedson

83'

G. Grubbe← L. Owusu

83'

N. Dyhr← Paulinho

84'

O. Sørensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdenseFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots20

5Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots20

3On Target6

1Off Target6

3Blocked8

4Inside Box18

3Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

470Total Passes411

369Accurate Passes309

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1