FC Midtjylland 2–1 Odense: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Odense

Charles 90+4'

Cho Gue-Sung 51' (pen)

L. Deedson 53'

9/24/2023

Superliga · Round 9MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

FC Midtjylland53%

×Draw23%

Odense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchOdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.18

FC Midtjylland

1.87

Odense

1.18

FC Midtjylland creates 58% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 117 away

2.12

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.12

Odense

1.29

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.07

Odense

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Odense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Odense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

76%

FC Midtjylland or Odense

77%

Draw or Odense

47%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

30%

Odense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

85%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

56%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

29%

Odense 1+ goals

69%

Odense 2+ goals

33%

Odense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

69%

Odense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.07 · 132 matches

Odense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.12 + Odense defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Odense attack 1.29 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

53%

level

23%

Odense scores more

24%

FC Midtjylland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Cho Gue-Sung

FC Midtjylland · F

7.9

Match Events

42'

Louicius Don Deedson

44'

Rami Al Hajj

49'

PaulinhoPenalty confirmed

51'

Cho Gue-SungPenalty

52'

N. Mickelson← L. Owusu

53'

L. Deedson

64'

Franculino Djú← O. Brynhildsen

64'

D. Osorio← O. Sørensen

66'

Alen Mustafić

71'

Nicholas Mickelson

82'

A. Gabriel← H. Dalsgaard

82'

Marrony← A. Şimşir

82'

C. Nouck← L. Deedson

82'

M. Ejdum← A. Mustafić

86'

87'

90+5'

90+6'

90+5'

90+5'

M. Ivančević← A. Manneh

90+4'

Charles↳ Cho Gue-Sung

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCOdense

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots3

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.43

2Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots3

3On Target1

6Off Target1

5Blocked1

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

59%Possession41%

520Total Passes370

418Accurate Passes254

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1