Odense 1–0 FC Fredericia: Result & Stats

Odense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Fredericia

J. Niemiec 90'

4/6/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 25Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Odense57%

×Draw21%

FC Fredericia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdenseExpected goals in this matchFC Fredericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.29

Odense

2.14

FC Fredericia

1.29

Odense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

1.27

1.30

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Odense

1.73

FC Fredericia

1.27

allows per match

Odense

1.30

FC Fredericia

2.55

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Odense-0.20scores less

FC Fredericia+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

FC Fredericia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Odense or draw

77%

Odense or FC Fredericia

79%

Draw or FC Fredericia

43%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+

34%

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals

88%

Odense 2+ goals

63%

Odense 3+ goals

36%

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

72%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

37%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)

71%

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.73 + FC Fredericia defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.14

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Odense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Odense scores more

57%

level

21%

FC Fredericia scores more

23%

Odense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. McCoy

Odense · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Nicolas Bürgy

51'

Daniel Kristjansson

57'

O. Buch← S. Johannesen

57'

E. Hansborg← M. Opondo

67'

J. Arp← A. Suhonen

67'

J. Niemiec← J. Grot

68'

Y. Bojang← J. Askou

77'

J. Kudsk← D. F. Kristjansson

77'

A. Pyndt← A. Dahl

82'

W. Martin← N. Ganaus

86'

Adam Nygaard

90+4'

B. Paulsen←

90'

E. Dall← G. Marcussen

90'

J. Niemiec↳ M. McCoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdenseFC

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots11

1.56Expected Goals (xG)0.89

8Corners6

7Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

2On Target1

8Off Target6

6Blocked4

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

653Total Passes332

566Accurate Passes251

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1