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FC Fredericia vs Odense — Superliga 2026

FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Odense
Odense
O. Buch 16'
A. Nygaard 63' (OG)
N. Ganaus 43'
J. Arp 12' (pen)
12/5/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Fredericia40%
×Draw24%
Odense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fredericia
1.60
Odense
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Fredericia
1.40
Odense
1.26

allows per match

FC Fredericia
1.79
Odense
1.80

finishing

FC Fredericia-0.13scores less
Odense+0.03on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Odense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw
64%
FC Fredericia or Odense
76%
Draw or Odense
60%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+
20%
Odense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals
80%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
47%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
22%
Odense 1+ goals
78%
Odense 2+ goals
45%
Odense 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
52%
Odense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

Odense away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.80 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.40 + Odense defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Odense attack 1.26 + FC Fredericia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Fredericia scores more
40%
level
24%
Odense scores more
36%

FC Fredericia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. AskouOdenseOdense · D
8.2

Match Events

12'
J. ArpPenalty
16'
O. Buch↳ D. F. Kristjansson
43'
N. Ganaus↳ M. Ejdum
55'
J. Jessen← D. F. Kristjansson
55'
E. Dall← W. Madsen
63'
A. NygaardOwn goal
64'
Svenn Crone
69'
A. Dahl← S. Crone
69'
J. Lindekilde← E. Simonsen
70'
M. McCoy← A. Sorensen
72'
Fiete Arp
76'
J. Niemiec← N. Ganaus
80'
A. Mucolli← A. Nygaard
86'
G. Grubbe← J. Grot
86'
Y. Bojang← M. Ejdum

Possession

48%FC

Shots

10FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCOdense
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots12
1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.87
7Corners6
9Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots12
3On Target6
2Off Target4
5Blocked2
8Inside Box9
2Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
507Total Passes545
435Accurate Passes463
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Fredericia vs Odense

Odense beat FC Fredericia 3-1 in Superliga on December 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Arp (12' pen), O. Buch (16'), N. Ganaus (43'), A. Nygaard (63' o.g.).

Odense controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Monjasa Park in Fredericia.