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Odder vs Tarup-Paarup — League #126 2026

Odder
Odder
FT
0 – 2
Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
9/8/2019League #126League #126 · Group 3 - 6Spektrum Odder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Odder59%
×Draw21%
Tarup-Paarup20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odder
2.05
Tarup-Paarup
1.10

Odder creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Odder
2.60
Tarup-Paarup
1.10

allows per match

Odder
1.10
Tarup-Paarup
1.50

finishing

Odder+0.00on par
Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odder ↓

Tarup-Paarup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Odder or draw
80%
Odder or Tarup-Paarup
79%
Draw or Tarup-Paarup
41%

Winning margin

Odder wins by 2+
36%
Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Odder 1+ goals
87%
Odder 2+ goals
61%
Odder 3+ goals
33%
Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
67%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
30%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Odder (draw refunded)
75%
Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odder at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odder attack 2.60 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Tarup-Paarup attack 1.10 + Odder defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Odder scores more
59%
level
21%
Tarup-Paarup scores more
20%

Odder at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Odder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #126: Odder 0–2 Tarup-Paarup

Tarup-Paarup beat Odder 2-0 in League #126 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Spektrum Odder in Odder.