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Odder vs Tarup-Paarup — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Odder
Odder
FT
2 – 1
Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
4/13/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22Spektrum Odder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Odder52%
×Draw25%
Tarup-Paarup23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odder
1.60
Tarup-Paarup
0.96

Odder creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Odder
1.63
Tarup-Paarup
0.43

allows per match

Odder
1.50
Tarup-Paarup
1.57

finishing

Odder+0.00on par
Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odder ↓

Tarup-Paarup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Odder or draw
77%
Odder or Tarup-Paarup
75%
Draw or Tarup-Paarup
48%

Winning margin

Odder wins by 2+
28%
Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Odder 1+ goals
80%
Odder 2+ goals
47%
Odder 3+ goals
22%
Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
62%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
25%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Odder (draw refunded)
70%
Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odder at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odder attack 1.63 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.43 + Odder defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Odder scores more
52%
level
25%
Tarup-Paarup scores more
23%

Odder at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Odder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odder vs Tarup-Paarup

Odder beat Tarup-Paarup 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Spektrum Odder in Odder.