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Odd U19 vs Molde U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Odd U19
Odd U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Molde U19
Molde U19advanced
11/2/2023Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Semi-finalsSkagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Odd U1951%
×Draw19%
Molde U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd U19
2.61
Molde U19
1.98

Odd U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Odd U19
3.00
Molde U19
2.48

allows per match

Odd U19
1.47
Molde U19
2.22

finishing

Odd U19+0.00on par
Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd U19 ↓

Molde U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Odd U19 or draw
70%
Odd U19 or Molde U19
81%
Draw or Molde U19
49%

Winning margin

Odd U19 wins by 2+
32%
Molde U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Odd U19 1+ goals
93%
Odd U19 2+ goals
73%
Odd U19 3+ goals
47%
Molde U19 1+ goals
86%
Molde U19 2+ goals
59%
Molde U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Odd U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Molde U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd U19 attack 3.00 + Molde U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.61

Molde U19 attack 2.48 + Odd U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Odd U19 scores more
51%
level
19%
Molde U19 scores more
30%

Odd U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Odd U19 1–2 Molde U19

Molde U19 beat Odd U19 2-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.