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Molde U19 vs Odd U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Molde U19
Molde U19advanced
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Odd U19
Odd U19
9/21/2023Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Semi-finalsAker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molde U1945%
×Draw19%
Odd U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde U19
2.69
Odd U19
2.45

Molde U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

Molde U19
2.96
Odd U19
3.06

allows per match

Molde U19
1.83
Odd U19
2.41

finishing

Molde U19+0.00on par
Odd U19+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde U19 ↓

Odd U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Molde U19 or draw
63%
Molde U19 or Odd U19
81%
Draw or Odd U19
55%

Winning margin

Molde U19 wins by 2+
27%
Odd U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Molde U19 1+ goals
93%
Molde U19 2+ goals
74%
Molde U19 3+ goals
49%
Odd U19 1+ goals
91%
Odd U19 2+ goals
70%
Odd U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Molde U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Odd U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde U19 at home — creates 2.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Odd U19 away — creates 3.06, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde U19 attack 2.96 + Odd U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.69

Odd U19 attack 3.06 + Molde U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Molde U19 scores more
45%
level
19%
Odd U19 scores more
37%

Molde U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molde U19 vs Odd U19

Molde U19 beat Odd U19 5-4 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.