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Odd II vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Odd II
Odd II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Flint
Flint
8/11/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Odd II54%
×Draw19%
Flint27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd II
2.62
Flint
1.84

Odd II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Odd II
2.77
Flint
1.69

allows per match

Odd II
2.00
Flint
2.46

finishing

Odd II+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd II ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Odd II or draw
73%
Odd II or Flint
81%
Draw or Flint
46%

Winning margin

Odd II wins by 2+
35%
Flint wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odd II 1+ goals
93%
Odd II 2+ goals
73%
Odd II 3+ goals
48%
Flint 1+ goals
84%
Flint 2+ goals
55%
Flint 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odd II (draw refunded)
67%
Flint (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Flint away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd II attack 2.77 + Flint defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.62

Flint attack 1.69 + Odd II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Odd II scores more
54%
level
19%
Flint scores more
27%

Odd II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odd II 2 – 1 Flint

Odd II beat Flint 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 11, 2025.