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Flint vs Odd II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Odd II
Odd II
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint29%
×Draw21%
Odd II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.62
Odd II
2.16

Odd II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
1.62
Odd II
1.77

allows per match

Flint
2.54
Odd II
1.62

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Odd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Flint or draw
50%
Flint or Odd II
79%
Draw or Odd II
71%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
14%
Odd II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
80%
Flint 2+ goals
48%
Flint 3+ goals
22%
Odd II 1+ goals
88%
Odd II 2+ goals
63%
Odd II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
37%
Odd II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + Odd II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Odd II attack 1.77 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flint scores more
29%
level
21%
Odd II scores more
50%

Odd II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Flint 2–1 Odd II

Flint beat Odd II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 1, 2025.