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Odd II vs Åskollen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Odd II
Odd II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Åskollen
Åskollen
9/25/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Odd II60%
×Draw18%
Åskollen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd II
2.83
Åskollen
1.70

Odd II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Odd II
2.44
Åskollen
1.23

allows per match

Odd II
2.17
Åskollen
3.23

finishing

Odd II+0.00on par
Åskollen+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd II ↓

Åskollen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Odd II or draw
78%
Odd II or Åskollen
82%
Draw or Åskollen
40%

Winning margin

Odd II wins by 2+
41%
Åskollen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Odd II 1+ goals
94%
Odd II 2+ goals
77%
Odd II 3+ goals
53%
Åskollen 1+ goals
82%
Åskollen 2+ goals
51%
Åskollen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Odd II (draw refunded)
73%
Åskollen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Åskollen away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd II attack 2.44 + Åskollen defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.83

Åskollen attack 1.23 + Odd II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Odd II scores more
60%
level
18%
Åskollen scores more
22%

Odd II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Odd II 5–2 Åskollen

Odd II beat Åskollen 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.