Åskollen 6–4 Odd II: Result & Stats

Åskollen

FT

6 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Odd II

6/19/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 10Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen47%

×Draw19%

Odd II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÅskollenExpected goals in this matchOdd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

2.06

Åskollen

2.45

Odd II

2.06

Åskollen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.85

creates per match

1.80

2.31

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Åskollen

2.85

Odd II

1.80

allows per match

Åskollen

2.31

Odd II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par

Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Odd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw

67%

Åskollen or Odd II

81%

Draw or Odd II

53%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+

28%

Odd II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals

91%

Åskollen 2+ goals

70%

Åskollen 3+ goals

44%

Odd II 1+ goals

87%

Odd II 2+ goals

61%

Odd II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)

58%

Odd II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 2.85 + Odd II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.45

Odd II attack 1.80 + Åskollen defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Åskollen scores more

47%

level

19%

Odd II scores more

33%

Åskollen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Åskollen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff