ODD Ballklubb 1–4 Sogndal: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal

A. Abdulateef 46'

T. Pippola 90'

S. Pedersen 81', 51'

O. Hintsa 27'

11/1/2025

1. Division · Round 29Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb42%

×Draw24%

Sogndal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.38

ODD Ballklubb

1.58

Sogndal

1.38

ODD Ballklubb creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 114 away

1.57

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

67%

ODD Ballklubb or Sogndal

76%

Draw or Sogndal

58%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

21%

Sogndal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

47%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

21%

Sogndal 1+ goals

75%

Sogndal 2+ goals

40%

Sogndal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

56%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sogndal attack 1.33 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

42%

level

24%

Sogndal scores more

33%

ODD Ballklubb at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

35'

43'

45+3'

46'

A. Abdulateef← O. Hagen

46'

A. Abdulateef

51'

S. Pedersen↳ J. Flaten

55'

H. Bonnesen

57'

J. Flaten

58'

S. Skjeldal

66'

T. Borven← S. Aas

73'

T. Pippola← O. Hintsa

80'

81'

85'

86'

88'

90+2'

90+2'

90'

ODD

Sogndal

1

Jendal

2

▼

Bras

4

Holten

13

Flo

8

A

Flaten

33

Granheim

6

Hoyland

10

▼

Skaanes

16

Vapne

9

⚽

▼

Hintsa

7

⚽2

▼

Pedersen

1

Hansen

2

▼

Sjol

5

Bonnesen

21

▼

Hagen

13

Skjeldal

7

Jorgensen

18

▼

Aas

27

Adamu

11

▼

Hagen

9

Djantou

29

Zekhnini

Manager: Knut Rønningene

46'▲A. Abdulateef←▼O. Hagen

66'▲T. Borven←▼S. Aas

80'▲J. Baccay←▼J. Sjol

85'▲G. Ambrose←▼S. Hagen

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Hansen3Baccay14Gunnerod17Murtnes19Abdulateef20Hardarson22Borven23Kojo25Ambrose

Manager: Luís Berkemeier Pimenta

73'▲T. Pippola←▼O. Hintsa

86'▲R. Onyango←▼D. Bras

90+2'▲V. Hagen←▼K. Skaanes

90+2'▲P. Asp←▼S. Pedersen

Sogndal substitutes

21Saetren18Hagen19Pippola20Asp22Kalstad23Sturgeon88Onyango

1. Division: ODD Ballklubb 1–4 Sogndal

Sogndal beat ODD Ballklubb 4-1 in 1. Division on November 1, 2025.

Goals: O. Hintsa (27'), A. Abdulateef (46'), S. Pedersen (51', 81'), T. Pippola (90').

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: ODD Ballklubb 1–4 Sogndal