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ODD Ballklubb vs Sogndal — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sogndal
Sogndal
R. Zekhnini 85'
S. Mladenovic 77'
F. Nordkvelle 67'
J. Raitala 5'
10/30/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ODD Ballklubb53%
×Draw22%
Sogndal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.90
Sogndal
1.23

ODD Ballklubb creates 54% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 8 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.68
Sogndal
1.13

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.33
Sogndal
2.13

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
75%
ODD Ballklubb or Sogndal
78%
Draw or Sogndal
47%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
30%
Sogndal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
85%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
56%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
29%
Sogndal 1+ goals
71%
Sogndal 2+ goals
35%
Sogndal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
68%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.33 · 93 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.68 + Sogndal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sogndal attack 1.13 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
53%
level
22%
Sogndal scores more
25%

ODD Ballklubb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
E. RuudODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · D
7.6

Match Events

5'
J. Raitala
46'
S. Mladenovic← O. Berg
66'
R. Zekhnini← Riku Riski
67'
F. Nordkvelle↳ C. Akabueze
71'
R. Holsæter← G. Koomson
77'
S. Mladenovic↳ E. Ruud
83'
M. Otoo← L. Kjemhus
85'
R. Zekhnini
90+4'
T. Grøgaard← R. Zekhnini
90+1'
V. Moberg← M. Ramsland

Possession

ODD: 69Sogndal: 3169%ODD

Shots

ODD: 14Sogndal: 614ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 86Sogndal: 6457%ODD

Statistics

ODDSogndal
Overview
69%Possession31%
14Total Shots6
6Corners0
3Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots6
6On Target3
4Off Target3
4Blocked0
7Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
69%Possession31%
601Total Passes261
514Accurate Passes166
86%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
3Fouls11
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 3–1 Sogndal

ODD Ballklubb beat Sogndal 3-1 in Eliteserien on October 30, 2016.

Goals: J. Raitala (5'), F. Nordkvelle (67'), S. Mladenovic (77'), R. Zekhnini (85').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (69%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.