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ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
F. Jørgensen 90+3'
J. Lindseth 27'
5/24/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 4Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb35%
×Draw24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.63

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.49
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
59%
ODD Ballklubb or Sarpsborg 08 FF
76%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
65%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
16%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
77%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
43%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
80%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
48%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
35%
level
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
41%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. LindsethSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · F
7.6

Match Events

15'
Magnar Odegaard
27'
J. Lindseth
42'
Mushaga Bakenga
43'
Ole Jørgen Halvorsen
72'
F. Jørgensen← C. Wallem
72'
E. Pálsson← A. Salétros
80'
K. Larsen← S. Svendsen
84'
R. Muhammed← I. Koné
84'
J. Soltvedt← J. Lindseth
90+1'
E. Wichne← O. Halvorsen
90+3'
F. Jørgensen↳ M. Bakenga

Possession

ODD: 64Sarpsborg: 3664%ODD

Shots

ODD: 11Sarpsborg: 1011ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 86Sarpsborg: 8151%ODD

Statistics

ODDSarpsborg
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots10
3Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots10
6On Target4
3Off Target5
2Blocked1
8Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
685Total Passes380
591Accurate Passes306
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on May 24, 2021.

Goals: J. Lindseth (27'), F. Jørgensen (90+3').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.