ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

E. Ruud 50' (pen)

M. Dyrestam 66'

10/31/2020

Eliteserien · Round 23Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb35%

×Draw24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.63

ODD Ballklubb

1.48

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.63

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

1.76

1.49

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

59%

ODD Ballklubb or Sarpsborg 08 FF

76%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

65%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

16%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

77%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

43%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

19%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

48%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

46%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

35%

level

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

41%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Ruud

ODD Ballklubb · D

7.5

Match Events

32'

Joachim Thomassen

49'

Magnar Odegaard

50'

E. RuudPenalty

57'

Anton Saletros

63'

R. Simovic← V. Rodić

66'

M. Dyrestam↳ N. Næss

75'

F. Nordkvelle← M. Kaasa

75'

J. Adéoti← S. Bojang

87'

T. Lauritsen← F. Jørgensen

90'

J. Soltvedt← T. Heintz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDSarpsborg

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots8

5Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target2

7Off Target6

4Blocked0

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

571Total Passes434

489Accurate Passes355

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2