ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Raufoss: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Raufoss

S. Bojadzic 20'

5/1/2026

1. Division · Round 5Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%

×Draw24%

Raufoss31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchRaufoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.38

ODD Ballklubb

1.72

Raufoss

1.38

ODD Ballklubb creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 99 away

1.57

creates per match

1.32

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Raufoss

1.32

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Raufoss

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Raufoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

69%

ODD Ballklubb or Raufoss

76%

Draw or Raufoss

54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

24%

Raufoss wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

82%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

51%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

25%

Raufoss 1+ goals

75%

Raufoss 2+ goals

40%

Raufoss 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

60%

Raufoss (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Raufoss defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Raufoss attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

46%

level

24%

Raufoss scores more

31%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

V. Rasmussen

13'

J. Buus

20'

S. Bojadzic↳ J. Vadstrup

29'

T. Naustdal

59'

M. Aanesland← R. Zekhnini

60'

F. Tewelde← S. Aas

63'

J. S. Selnaes← T. Naustdal

74'

K. Holte← F. Jorgensen

89'

H. Hardarson← V. Rasmussen

90'

S. Elmi← A. Achinioti-Jonsson

ODD

Raufoss

1

2

11

4

3

18

13

▼

Achinioti

8

▼

Naustdal

22

Silva

9

Rogulj

27

▼

1

2

5

6

A

Vadstrup

13

Skjeldal

7

▼

Jorgensen

8

Soderberg

23

Kojo

18

▼

Aas

9

⚽

Bojadzic

10

▼

Rasmussen

Manager: Per Frandsen

60'▲F. Tewelde←▼S. Aas

74'▲K. Holte←▼F. Jorgensen

89'▲H. Hardarson←▼V. Rasmussen

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Lysgard15Skau17Ambrose20Hardarson27Holte28Tewelde32Krosa

Manager: Kasey Wehrman

59'▲M. Aanesland←▼R. Zekhnini

63'▲J. S. Selnaes←▼T. Naustdal

90'▲S. Elmi←▼A. Achinioti-Jonsson

Raufoss substitutes

12D.10Aanesland15Conno16Larsen20Elmi23Selnaes30Korsaksel