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ODD Ballklubb vs Raufoss — Friendlies Clubs 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
3 – 1
Raufoss
Raufoss
3/6/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ODD Ballklubb56%
×Draw21%
Raufoss23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
2.10
Raufoss
1.27

ODD Ballklubb creates 65% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.70
Raufoss
1.40

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.15
Raufoss
2.50

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Raufoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
77%
ODD Ballklubb or Raufoss
79%
Draw or Raufoss
44%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
34%
Raufoss wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
88%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
62%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
35%
Raufoss 1+ goals
72%
Raufoss 2+ goals
36%
Raufoss 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
71%
Raufoss (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.70 + Raufoss defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Raufoss attack 1.40 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
56%
level
21%
Raufoss scores more
23%

ODD Ballklubb at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Raufoss

ODD Ballklubb beat Raufoss 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.