ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Moss: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Moss

S. Aas 63'

Unknown 45', 13'

3/1/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb56%

×Draw22%

Moss22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchMoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.20

ODD Ballklubb

2.02

Moss

1.20

ODD Ballklubb creates 68% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.70

creates per match

1.25

1.15

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.70

Moss

1.25

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.15

Moss

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Moss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Moss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

78%

ODD Ballklubb or Moss

78%

Draw or Moss

44%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

33%

Moss wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

87%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

60%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

33%

Moss 1+ goals

70%

Moss 2+ goals

34%

Moss 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

72%

Moss (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Moss away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.70 + Moss defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Moss attack 1.25 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

56%

level

22%

Moss scores more

22%

ODD Ballklubb at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

45'

63'

S. Aas

ODD

Moss

Manager: Knut Rønningene

Manager: Ole Martin Nesselquist