Moss 2–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Moss

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

A. Memedov 89'

T. Jakobsen 77'

H. Hardarson 59'

F. Jorgensen 36'

8/17/2025

1. Division · Round 19Melløs Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Moss48%

×Draw23%

ODD Ballklubb29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MossExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.31

Moss

1.76

ODD Ballklubb

1.31

Moss creates 34% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

1.81

creates per match

1.33

1.30

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Moss

1.81

ODD Ballklubb

1.33

allows per match

Moss

1.30

ODD Ballklubb

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moss+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Moss or draw

71%

Moss or ODD Ballklubb

77%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

52%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+

26%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals

83%

Moss 2+ goals

52%

Moss 3+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)

63%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.81 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Moss defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moss scores more

48%

level

23%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

29%

Moss at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Adamu

36'

F. Jorgensen↳ R. Zekhnini

42'

46'

49'

54'

59'

H. Hardarson↳ O. Hagen

63'

A. Memedov← S. Gronli

63'

N. Fuglestad← M. Afonso

63'

W. Kvale← K. Harrison

69'

S. Aas← R. Zekhnini

76'

B. Isufi← H. Vold Krohg

77'

T. Jakobsen↳ P. Andersen

83'

S. Skjeldal

85'

N. Kojo← T. Svendsen

89'

A. Memedov↳ P. Andersen

90'

S. Murtnes← O. Hagen

90'

T. Borven← H. Hardarson

Moss

ODD

1

Hansen

13

Skjeldal

3

Baccay

7

⚽

5

4

27

6

▼

Svendsen

11

A

▼

Hagen

20

⚽

▼

Hardarson

29

A

▼

1

2

23

9

3

4

▼

Harrison

8

▼

Krohg

17

A

Andersen

11

⚽

Jakobsen

49

▼

Afonso

21

▼

Gronli

Manager: Ole Martin Nesselquist

63'▲A. Memedov←▼S. Gronli

63'▲N. Fuglestad←▼M. Afonso

63'▲W. Kvale←▼K. Harrison

76'▲B. Isufi←▼H. Vold Krohg

Moss substitutes

6Spa15Engesvik19Memedov24Welinder26Isufi29Mayonga30Skott-Grande34Fuglestad46Kvale

Manager: Knut Rønningene

69'▲S. Aas←▼R. Zekhnini

85'▲N. Kojo←▼T. Svendsen

90'▲S. Murtnes←▼O. Hagen

90'▲T. Borven←▼H. Hardarson

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Hansen14Gunnerod21Hagen25Ambrose17Murtnes22Borven18Aas2Sjol23Kojo

1. Division: Moss 2–2 ODD Ballklubb

Moss and ODD Ballklubb drew 2-2 in 1. Division on August 17, 2025.

Goals: F. Jorgensen (36'), H. Hardarson (59'), T. Jakobsen (77'), A. Memedov (89').

The match was played at Melløs Stadion in Moss.

Moss vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Moss 2–2 ODD Ballklubb