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ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom — 1. Division 2018

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
10/22/20251. Division1. Division · Round 27Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb24%
×Draw23%
Lillestrom53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.19
Lillestrom
1.86

Lillestrom creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.57
Lillestrom
2.30

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.43
Lillestrom
0.80

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
47%
ODD Ballklubb or Lillestrom
77%
Draw or Lillestrom
76%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
10%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
70%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
33%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
12%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
84%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
55%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
32%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Lillestrom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lillestrom attack 2.30 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
24%
level
23%
Lillestrom scores more
53%

Lillestrom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 7-1 in 1. Division on October 22, 2025.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.