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Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
11/26/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Lillestrom48%
×Draw25%
ODD Ballklubb28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
1.60
ODD Ballklubb
1.16

Lillestrom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 98 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
1.47
ODD Ballklubb
1.07

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.25
ODD Ballklubb
1.73

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
72%
Lillestrom or ODD Ballklubb
75%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
52%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
25%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
80%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
47%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
22%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
69%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
32%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
63%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.47 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.07 + Lillestrom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lillestrom scores more
48%
level
25%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
28%

Lillestrom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb

Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb drew 4-4 in Eliteserien on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.