ODD Ballklubb 1–3 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

KFUM Oslo

B. Bang-Kittelsen 16'

J. Nuñez 73'

R. Rasch 42' (pen)

Moussa Njie 29'

9/29/2024

Eliteserien · Round 24Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb34%

×Draw27%

KFUM Oslo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.33

ODD Ballklubb

1.22

KFUM Oslo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.35

creates per match

1.10

1.55

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

KFUM Oslo

1.10

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

KFUM Oslo

1.09

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

KFUM Oslo+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

61%

ODD Ballklubb or KFUM Oslo

73%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

66%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

14%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

74%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

38%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

46%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.09 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

KFUM Oslo attack 1.10 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

34%

level

27%

KFUM Oslo scores more

39%

KFUM Oslo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Rasch

KFUM Oslo · M

8.6

Match Events

16'

B. Bang-Kittelsen↳ E. Ruud

29'

Moussa Njie↳ J. Nuñez

40'

Espen Ruud

42'

R. RaschPenalty

46'

L. Hien← E. Ruud

46'

S. Sandal← Moussa Njie

52'

S. Aas← B. Bang-Kittelsen

64'

D. Hickson← T. Haltvik

73'

J. Nuñez↳ A. Nouri

74'

O. Hagen← B. Njie

79'

Amin Nouri

80'

Z. Mugeese← A. Fransson

80'

O. Midtskogen← T. Svendsen

86'

M. Ndiaye← J. Nuñez

86'

R. Svindland← R. Rasch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDKFUM

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots9

0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.52

5Corners3

9Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots9

2On Target5

0Off Target3

3Blocked1

5Inside Box6

0Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

425Total Passes659

354Accurate Passes575

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1