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ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
S. Sørløkk 90+3'
M. Bjørlo 79'
5/5/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 6Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

ODD Ballklubb41%
×Draw25%
Fredrikstad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.48
Fredrikstad
1.33

ODD Ballklubb creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Fredrikstad
1.11

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Fredrikstad
1.66

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.08on par
Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
66%
ODD Ballklubb or Fredrikstad
75%
Draw or Fredrikstad
59%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
77%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
43%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
19%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
74%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
38%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
55%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
41%
level
25%
Fredrikstad scores more
34%

ODD Ballklubb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
F. JørgensenODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · M
8.2

Match Events

16'
S. Aas← T. Svendsen
69'
M. Bjørlo← J. Kjær
74'
Philip Sandvik Aukland
77'
E. Segberg← B. Hendriksson
77'
B. Skaret← P. Aukland
77'
L. Begby← P. Metcalfe
79'
M. Bjørlo↳ L. Begby
81'
O. Midtskogen← S. Aas
86'
J. Bjartalíð← O. Aga
88'
J. Skau← J. Baccay
90+3'
S. Sørløkk↳ L. Begby

Possession

59%ODD

Shots

12ODD

Pass accuracy

51%ODD

Statistics

ODDFredrikstad
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots11
0.79Expected Goals (xG)1.46
1Corners5
6Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots11
1On Target4
7Off Target6
4Blocked1
9Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
512Total Passes344
420Accurate Passes269
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 in Eliteserien on May 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Bjørlo (79'), S. Sørløkk (90+3').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.