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Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
H. Johansen 82'
M. Bjørlo 59' (pen)
8/31/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fredrikstad55%
×Draw22%
ODD Ballklubb23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.91
ODD Ballklubb
1.14

Fredrikstad creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
ODD Ballklubb
0.94

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
ODD Ballklubb
2.22

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
77%
Fredrikstad or ODD Ballklubb
78%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
45%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
32%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
85%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
57%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
30%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
68%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
32%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
71%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
55%
level
22%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
23%

Fredrikstad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
F. FallFredrikstadFredrikstad · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
Syver Aas
59'
M. BjørloPenalty
60'
M. Traoré← J. Kjær
60'
S. Sørløkk← P. Metcalfe
63'
S. Skjeldal← L. Hien
65'
Mikael Ingebrigtsen
73'
B. Njie← S. Johansen
73'
B. Bang-Kittelsen← S. Aas
78'
H. Johansen← H. Skogvold
82'
Daniel Eid
82'
H. Johansen↳ D. Eid
84'
O. Midtskogen← F. Jørgensen
90+1'
P. Aukland← M. Bjørlo

Possession

52%Fredrikstad

Shots

12Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

51%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadODD
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.65
6Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots8
6On Target1
6Off Target3
0Blocked4
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
384Total Passes343
289Accurate Passes244
75%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 2–0 ODD Ballklubb

Fredrikstad beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 in Eliteserien on August 31, 2024.

Goals: M. Bjørlo (59' pen), H. Johansen (82').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.