ODD Ballklubb 0–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

J. Hauge 55'

P. Berg 2'

11/23/2024

Eliteserien · Round 29Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb29%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.77

ODD Ballklubb

1.32

Bodo/Glimt

1.77

Bodo/Glimt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.30

creates per match

2.04

1.49

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Bodo/Glimt

2.04

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Bodo/Glimt

1.34

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

52%

ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

71%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

15%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

83%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

53%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

37%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.34 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.04 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

29%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

48%

Bodo/Glimt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Hauge

Bodo/Glimt · F

9.0

Match Events

2'

P. Berg↳ J. Hauge

24'

Leon Hien

46'

A. Helmersen← K. Høgh

46'

P. Zinckernagel← I. Määttä

55'

J. Hauge↳ U. Saltnes

61'

E. Hussain← S. Aas

61'

B. Bang-Kittelsen← O. Hagen

61'

O. Midtskogen← T. Børven

61'

B. Wembangomo← F. Sjøvold

68'

Ole Erik Midtskogen

74'

S. Fet← H. Evjen

75'

C. Glenna← M. Ingebrigtsen

80'

J. Baccay← L. Hien

85'

B. Moe← V. Nielsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDBodo/Glimt

Overview

32%Possession68%

5Total Shots13

0.30Expected Goals (xG)1.58

0Corners5

11Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target8

0Off Target2

3Blocked3

1Inside Box12

4Outside Box1

Passing

32%Possession68%

342Total Passes724

278Accurate Passes657

81%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3