Bodo/Glimt 7–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

U. Saltnes 78'

R. Espejord 67'

H. Vetlesen 53', 45+1', 26'

A. Pellegrino 44', 12'

8/6/2022

Eliteserien · Round 17Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Bodo/Glimt72%

×Draw17%

ODD Ballklubb11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.85

Bodo/Glimt

2.42

ODD Ballklubb

0.85

Bodo/Glimt creates 185% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

2.59

creates per match

0.94

0.77

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.59

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.77

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.44scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

89%

Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb

83%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

28%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

49%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

91%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

69%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

43%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

57%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

21%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

86%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.77 · 35 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.59 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.42

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

72%

level

17%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

11%

Bodo/Glimt at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Vetlesen

Bodo/Glimt · M

10.0

Match Events

12'

A. Pellegrino↳ H. Vetlesen

26'

H. Vetlesen↳ E. Hagen

44'

A. Pellegrino

45+1'

H. Vetlesen

46'

S. Sørli← B. Wembangomo

53'

H. Vetlesen↳ A. Pellegrino

55'

D. Gjengaar← S. Aas

55'

G. Rólantsson← T. Rekdal

62'

N. Žugelj← A. Pellegrino

62'

R. Espejord← L. Salvesen

67'

R. Espejord↳ U. Saltnes

75'

F. Sjøvold← H. Vetlesen

78'

A. Tjærandsen-Skau← J. Mvuka

78'

U. Saltnes↳ E. Hagen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtODD

Overview

63%Possession37%

29Total Shots4

9Corners2

5Fouls10

Shots

29Total Shots4

11On Target1

11Off Target2

7Blocked1

19Inside Box3

10Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

629Total Passes374

572Accurate Passes307

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Offsides1