ODD Ballklubb 3–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

E. Ruud 90+9' (pen)

C. Wallem 59'

M. Jevtović 19'

I. Amundsen 90+7'

A. Pellegrino 29'

7/2/2022

Eliteserien · Round 12Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb27%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.82

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Bodo/Glimt

1.82

Bodo/Glimt creates 40% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

1.30

creates per match

2.15

1.49

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Bodo/Glimt

2.15

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Bodo/Glimt

1.30

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

50%

ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

73%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

84%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

54%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

36%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.15 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

27%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

50%

Bodo/Glimt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. Solbakken

Bodo/Glimt · F

7.6

Match Events

19'

M. Jevtović

29'

A. Pellegrino↳ R. Espejord

46'

J. Sery← B. Moe

52'

Filip Rønningen Jørgensen

54'

Marius Hoibraten

58'

A. Stensrud← T. Lauritsen

59'

C. Wallem↳ F. Jørgensen

71'

V. Boniface← R. Espejord

72'

76'

78'

84'

86'

I. Mesík← M. Jevtović

88'

J. Mvuka← O. Solbakken

90'

I. Amundsen← B. Wembangomo

90+7'

I. Amundsen↳ M. Høibråten

90+9'

E. RuudPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDBodo/Glimt

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots23

1Corners7

12Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots23

5On Target5

3Off Target6

1Blocked12

9Inside Box16

0Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

341Total Passes578

281Accurate Passes516

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0